Markets
Third quarter 2026: what moved for a euro investor
Shares ended the quarter about where they began. Yields did not: the ten-year Bund rose from 2.93 to 3.64 per cent, and the ECB and the Fed both raised rates.
Markets, tax and the mechanics of a private portfolio
Twice a month: what moved, how the rules work, and what we learn building software for private investors.
2026
- Product
Ask your portfolio: Valued's read-only connector for ChatGPT
From today ChatGPT can read the workspace you choose in Valued and cite the page behind each answer. It cannot change, upload, delete or send anything. - Tax
German tax certificate per depot: what the lines mean
Each German bank withholds tax as if it were your only bank. With several depots that costs money until Anlage KAP and a loss certificate put it right. - Strategy
Fund admin portals versus your own record as an LP
A fund portal shows one fund as its manager sees it. Total unfunded commitment, your own euro cash flows and your returns exist only in a record you keep. - Real estate
Rental yield: gross, net, and what a German rental flat really leaves
A flat listed at 4.1 per cent gross yields about 3.0 per cent net on the full purchase cost and, with a loan at 3.8 per cent, about 2.5 per cent on equity. - Private markets
Commitment pacing: how much to commit each year, and to how many funds
To hold EUR 1 million in private funds you commit roughly EUR 200,000 every year, not EUR 1 million once. A simple model shows why and what it costs in cash. - Markets
First half of 2026 in review for a euro investor
An oil shock, the first ECB rate rise since 2023 and a stronger dollar. US shares gained 9.6 per cent in dollars, about 13 in euros; the DAX about 2. - Technology
AI assistants and your financial data: what happens to an upload
What happens to a document in a chatbot depends on the plan, not the model: consumer terms may keep and train on it, commercial terms usually exclude that. - Private markets
Club deals and SPVs: what you actually own
In an SPV you own a share of the vehicle, not of the company. Information rights, votes, fees, carry and tax papers sit there. Record both layers. - Family office
Succession: a portfolio your heirs can actually read
Heirs have six weeks to decide and three months to notify the tax office. Without a record of commitments, stakes, loans and documents they decide blind. - Strategy
USD funds for a euro investor: what the dollar does to your return
Each call and distribution converts at the rate of its value date, so your euro IRR differs from the fund's. Hedging is not realistic; holding dollars is. - Private markets
IRR, TVPI or DPI: which fund number to trust
DPI is cash, TVPI adds the manager's estimate, IRR adds timing and can be moved by a credit line. Which of the three leads depends on the fund's age. - Markets
One year after Liberation Day, what the tariff shock taught
A year on, the S&P 500 is up 16 per cent in dollars and 8 per cent in euros. The lasting cost of the tariff shock for euro investors was the currency. - Strategy
Private and public markets belong in one portfolio view
Private holdings are equity risk reported with a delay. Their share should follow from the liquidity you need, not from a promised illiquidity premium. - Private markets
The J-curve, and why vintage matters more than fund picking
A fund's first three years show fees and cost, not quality. A private LP gains more from committing steadily across vintages than from picking funds. - Private markets
Down rounds and liquidation preferences, worked through for an angel
In a modest exit, a 1x non-participating preference moves money from ordinary shareholders to later investors. A worked example with the waterfall. - Technology
What AI reads correctly in a capital call, and where it fails
Language models read clean capital calls well. They fail on scans, netted amounts, recallable distributions and fees outside the commitment. - Strategy
Rebalancing when half your portfolio cannot be sold
With illiquid holdings you rebalance with flows, not sales: wide target ranges, new commitments and distributions as levers, the liquid part last. - Tax
Vorabpauschale 2026: what your bank debits in January and why
For 2025 the Vorabpauschale is 1.771% of a fund's value at the start of 2025. On EUR 100,000 in an equity ETF that is up to EUR 327 in tax.
2025
- Markets
2025 in review for private investors: the dollar mattered most
For a euro investor the dollar's 12% fall outweighed the April tariff crash. The S&P 500 gained about 16% in dollars and about 2% in euros. - Real estate
Your fixed-rate period ends: the refinancing sums for a rental flat
When a 2016 loan at 1.9% rolls over at about 3.6%, the instalment can stay the same while repayment halves. Run four numbers before you sign. - Private markets
How to read a quarterly fund report and capital account statement
Start with the capital account statement, not the letter. Reconcile paid-in, distributions and NAV with your own record, then read the rest. - Tax
Year-end tax checklist 2025 for private investors in Germany
The only hard deadline is 15 December 2025 for the loss certificate. The rest is checking loss pots, exemption orders and the papers for funds and stakes. - Strategy
Portfolio software compared: which tool for which investor
Trackers suit a depot, institutional platforms suit an office with staff, cap-table tools serve the company. What decides is where your data comes from. - Markets
How much AI do you own? Adding up ETF, VC funds and angel stakes
Count AI across the world ETF, the venture funds and the angel stakes and it can be four times what you thought. The sum matters more than a bubble call. - Family office
Family office, wealth manager or do it yourself: what fits when
An own family office costs about 0.4 per cent of assets a year and pays from nine figures up. Below that, buy services and keep the overview yourself. - Markets
Gold at a record above USD 3,500: its role beside illiquid assets
Gold hit USD 3,526 on 2 September 2025. Beside funds and stakes it is a small liquid reserve, and in Germany the wrapper decides the tax. - Private markets
Convertible loans: what a business angel owns before conversion
Before conversion a convertible loan is a subordinated claim, not a stake. How cap and discount set the number of shares, with the German form and tax points. - Private markets
Selling a fund stake on the secondary market: what a small LP can do
Secondaries hit a record USD 103 billion in H1 2025 at 90% of NAV on average. A small private LP can sell too, but with GP consent and at a steeper discount. - Private markets
ELTIF 2.0 or a classic fund commitment: which suits a private investor
ELTIF 2.0 removed the EUR 10,000 minimum and allows redemptions. It differs from a fund commitment in calls, liquidity and cost, and suits smaller sums. - Markets
First half of 2025: the S&P 500 at a record, and down 6.5% in euros
The S&P 500 rose 5.5% in dollars in the first half of 2025 and fell 6.5% in euros, because the dollar lost 11%. What that means for depots and USD funds. - Real estate
The ECB cut to 2.00%. Your follow-on mortgage did not get cheaper
Mortgage rates follow ten-year Bund yields, not the ECB. What owners whose fixed rate ends in 2026 or 2027 can do now, with a worked example. - Private markets
Why LPs ask for DPI in 2025 and what the distribution drought means
Buyout funds distribute about 11 per cent of NAV a year, down from 29. DPI shows what came back in cash, and a private LP should plan with the lower rate. - Private markets
Planning liquidity for capital calls, with a worked example
Hold a stressed twelve months of expected calls in cash, the following year in short maturities, and cover the rest with listed assets counted at a discount. - Politics
What the German coalition agreement says for private investors
Corporate tax falls from 2028, venture programmes grow, a child pension depot is planned for 2026. Capital gains tax is not mentioned. Nothing is law yet. - Strategy
When a spreadsheet stops working for fund and angel investments
A spreadsheet is enough for a few funds in one currency. It has stopped working when nobody can state the unfunded commitment or trace a figure to its document. - Markets
The tariff shock and the denominator effect in a private portfolio
When shares fall 12 per cent in four days, the private share of a portfolio rises without a purchase. The ratio matters less than the cash for the next calls.
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